Re: computer-go: Applying Moore's Law to Computer Go

[Serge Boisse <boisse@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Clay ChipSmith wrote:
> 
> Applying Moore's Law to Computer Go raises guarded hope.
> 
> (See http://webopedia.internet.com/TERM/M/Moores_Law.html for a definition
> of Moore's Law).
> 
> Computer Go strength grew 1 rank each 20 months
> during the last decade.  I reckon this trend will continue
> in part for the foreseeable future.  Particularly, let us
> speculate growth to continue 1 rank each 18 to 30 months
> for another 2 decades.  For example, in 2020 Computer
> Go strength could reach 4k* to 1d* (IGS scale).
> 
> The profound scaleability of cmos is the foundation
> of Moore's Law.  Computer Go had both hardware and
> software dependency for strength growth.  Moore's
> Law may cover the hardware side of Computer Go
> strength dependency.  A combination of programming
> efficiency and ever increasing colaboration may cover
> the software side of Computer Go strength dependency.
> 
> Best Wishes, Clay ChipSmith ><>

But go is *not* linear. You can have a 100 times fast processor, it 
will not give you even one more ply in depth search.
The fact that "progresses on software side" will compensate for this
is just an article of faith. You can believe it, or not.

-- 
  _______________________________
 / The reasonable man tries to   \
 | adapt himself to the world.   | (sorry for long signature, I know this
 | The unreasonable man tries to | is not netiquettally correct ;-)
 | adapt the world to himself.   |
 |Therefore all progress depends |         \\\|/// 
 \__on_the_unreasonable_man...___/  O    \\  ^ ^  // 
                                      o o (  @ @  ) 
 +--------------------------------------oOOo-(_)-oOOo----+
 |  Serge Boisse                                         |
 |  SERVICE TECHNIQUE DE LA NAVIGATION AERIENNE (STNA)   |
 |  ODS FRANCE project, http://www.stna.dgac.fr/phidias  |
 |  tel: (0)562 14 5731      mailto:boisse@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx  |
 |  homepages: http://www.multimania.com/boisse          |
 |  and:       http://www.multimania.com/unitedplanet    |
 +-----------------------------------------------Oooo----+ 
                                         oooO   (   ) 
                                         (   )   ) / 
                                          \ (   (_/ 
                                           \_)