[computer-go] Statistical Significance (was: SlugGo vs Many Faces,newest data)

[Rémi Coulom <Remi.Coulom@xxxxxxx>]

On Saturday 04 September 2004 02:40, David G Doshay wrote:
> I found it interesting that Many Faces won 10 of the first 13, and then
> SlugGo won 11 of the next 14. This was what I meant in an earlier
> email when I wrote about how easy it is to be fooled by small samples.
> It looks to me like we would need at least 200 games to know what
> is going on at 4 stones. All of these games involved huge groups and
> large strings of cut off stones.

I made tools for the estimation of the statistical significance of a match, 
that you may find useful. These tools evaluate the likelihood that one player 
is better than the other, using Bayesian inference with uniform prior. The 
likelihood can be evaluated either from the result of a match between the two 
players, or from the result of each of them against the same opponent (or set 
of opponents).

http://remi.coulom.free.fr/WhoIsBest.zip

Rémi
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