[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]

[research report] Equation Derived -- Re: On Game Space Size (Monte Carlo)



Ladies & Gentlemen,

	Instead of waiting for Professor Pieter's result, I wrote a java program
which does the calculation. The data reveal some astoninshing results.

	After the program finished calculation for a 10 x 10 board (now it's
working for 16 x 16), I hacked the data (see below) and derived the
following relationship.
	
	Given 	p -- % of illegal position
		n -- square board dimension size (i.e., a n x n board)
		s -- percentage of board coverage ( # of B/W stones / n^2)
	We have:

		log(p/(1 - p)) ~= 4.8 * s + 0.009 * n^2 - 3.8 or 
		p = 10^(4.8s + 0.009n^2 - 3.8)/[1 + 10^(4.8s + 0.009n^2 - 3.8)]
		Or approximately
		log(p/(1 - p)) ~= 5s + 0.01n^2 - 4,
		p = 10^(5s + 0.01n^2 - 4)
		(Copy Right, Mousheng Xu, 1999 :) )
	
	Statistics shows that for the above regression,
		R squre = 94.1%
		the residual plot show no obvious patterns, which implies the unexplained
5.9% can be explained by random errors.

	Chemists should know the formula is similar to "Hill plot" equation.
 
	Back to Dave Dyer's question: what the hell does it matter? :)
	It at least can give us a relatively accurate estimation about the real
complexity of a board instead of saying "I guess" or "approximately" ...
	Before we do any calculation, check below for the result for 9 x 9. When
the board is half full, about 1/4 configurations are illegal, when the
board is about 90% full, almost every configurtion is illegal. Which means,
the complexity would be less than that of a 72 stone board, a save of 3(81
- 72) = 20000 times of calculation.
	
	Thanks.

-- Mousheng Xu

	
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For every entry below, 100 random samples are drawn.

n #stone  %illegal
2    1    0.0
2    2    0.0
2    3    0.17
2    4    1.0
3    1    0.0
3    2    0.0
3    3    0.0
3    4    0.04
3    5    0.02
3    6    0.16
3    7    0.26
3    8    0.74
3    9    1.0
4    1    0.0
4    2    0.0
4    3    0.0
4    4    0.0
4    5    0.0
4    6    0.03
4    7    0.01
4    8    0.06
4    9    0.1
4    10    0.15
4    11    0.21
4    12    0.3
4    13    0.5
4    14    0.65
4    15    0.9
4    16    1.0
5    1    0.0
5    2    0.0
5    3    0.0
5    4    0.0
5    5    0.0
5    6    0.02
5    7    0.0
5    8    0.0
5    9    0.04
5    10    0.06
5    11    0.02
5    12    0.04
5    13    0.06
5    14    0.14
5    15    0.19
5    16    0.3
5    17    0.27
5    18    0.32
5    19    0.44
5    20    0.55
5    21    0.59
5    22    0.77
5    23    0.89
5    24    0.99
5    25    1.0
6    1    0.0
6    2    0.0
6    3    0.0
6    4    0.0
6    5    0.02
6    6    0.0
6    7    0.0
6    8    0.0
6    9    0.0
6    10    0.0
6    11    0.0
6    12    0.02
6    13    0.04
6    14    0.04
6    15    0.02
6    16    0.09
6    17    0.1
6    18    0.12
6    19    0.11
6    20    0.14
6    21    0.3
6    22    0.3
6    23    0.25
6    24    0.31
6    25    0.38
6    26    0.45
6    27    0.46
6    28    0.48
6    29    0.64
6    30    0.76
6    31    0.82
6    32    0.89
6    33    0.96
6    34    0.98
6    35    1.0
6    36    1.0
7    1    0.0
7    2    0.0
7    3    0.0
7    4    0.0
7    5    0.0
7    6    0.0
7    7    0.01
7    8    0.0
7    9    0.0
7    10    0.0
7    11    0.0
7    12    0.01
7    13    0.01
7    14    0.02
7    15    0.0
7    16    0.05
7    17    0.02
7    18    0.03
7    19    0.02
7    20    0.11
7    21    0.11
7    22    0.04
7    23    0.1
7    24    0.19
7    25    0.14
7    26    0.21
7    27    0.22
7    28    0.23
7    29    0.27
7    30    0.26
7    31    0.29
7    32    0.3
7    33    0.4
7    34    0.51
7    35    0.59
7    36    0.62
7    37    0.64
7    38    0.61
7    39    0.72
7    40    0.71
7    41    0.78
7    42    0.85
7    43    0.95
7    44    0.97
7    45    0.97
7    46    0.98
7    47    0.99
7    48    1.0
7    49    1.0
8    1    0.0
8    2    0.0
8    3    0.0
8    4    0.0
8    5    0.0
8    6    0.0
8    7    0.0
8    8    0.0
8    9    0.0
8    10    0.0
8    11    0.0
8    12    0.0
8    13    0.02
8    14    0.03
8    15    0.0
8    16    0.0
8    17    0.0
8    18    0.02
8    19    0.01
8    20    0.01
8    21    0.01
8    22    0.03
8    23    0.03
8    24    0.06
8    25    0.08
8    26    0.1
8    27    0.06
8    28    0.13
8    29    0.15
8    30    0.09
8    31    0.1
8    32    0.15
8    33    0.22
8    34    0.24
8    35    0.27
8    36    0.3
8    37    0.3
8    38    0.31
8    39    0.34
8    40    0.45
8    41    0.46
8    42    0.48
8    43    0.46
8    44    0.54
8    45    0.58
8    46    0.57
8    47    0.68
8    48    0.75
8    49    0.76
8    50    0.72
8    51    0.83
8    52    0.8
8    53    0.84
8    54    0.87
8    55    0.94
8    56    0.95
8    57    0.98
8    58    0.97
8    59    0.98
8    60    1.0
8    61    1.0
8    62    1.0
8    63    1.0
8    64    1.0
9    1    0.0
9    2    0.0
9    3    0.0
9    4    0.0
9    5    0.0
9    6    0.0
9    7    0.0
9    8    0.0
9    9    0.0
9    10    0.0
9    11    0.0
9    12    0.0
9    13    0.0
9    14    0.01
9    15    0.0
9    16    0.02
9    17    0.01
9    18    0.01
9    19    0.0
9    20    0.02
9    21    0.01
9    22    0.0
9    23    0.02
9    24    0.02
9    25    0.03
9    26    0.08
9    27    0.02
9    28    0.05
9    29    0.03
9    30    0.02
9    31    0.07
9    32    0.03
9    33    0.1
9    34    0.05
9    35    0.11
9    36    0.1
9    37    0.14
9    38    0.21
9    39    0.16
9    40    0.26
9    41    0.21
9    42    0.25
9    43    0.18
9    44    0.16
9    45    0.34
9    46    0.35
9    47    0.36
9    48    0.41
9    49    0.47
9    50    0.44
9    51    0.47
9    52    0.5
9    53    0.64
9    54    0.65
9    55    0.52
9    56    0.63
9    57    0.76
9    58    0.76
9    59    0.72
9    60    0.77
9    61    0.81
9    62    0.84
9    63    0.86
9    64    0.86
9    65    0.95
9    66    0.91
9    67    0.92
9    68    0.93
9    69    0.95
9    70    0.98
9    71    0.96
9    72    1.0
9    73    1.0
9    74    0.99
9    75    0.98
9    76    1.0
9    77    1.0
9    78    1.0
9    79    1.0
9    80    1.0
9    81    1.0
10    1    0.0
10    2    0.0
10    3    0.0
10    4    0.0
10    5    0.0
10    6    0.0
10    7    0.0
10    8    0.0
10    9    0.0
10    10    0.0
10    11    0.0
10    12    0.0
10    13    0.0
10    14    0.01
10    15    0.01
10    16    0.0
10    17    0.0
10    18    0.0
10    19    0.0
10    20    0.02
10    21    0.0
10    22    0.0
10    23    0.01
10    24    0.02
10    25    0.03
10    26    0.02
10    27    0.01
10    28    0.03
10    29    0.03
10    30    0.05
10    31    0.06
10    32    0.04
10    33    0.02
10    34    0.06
10    35    0.05
10    36    0.07
10    37    0.08
10    38    0.05
10    39    0.1
10    40    0.07
10    41    0.12
10    42    0.1
10    43    0.17
10    44    0.14
10    45    0.13
10    46    0.17
10    47    0.11
10    48    0.18
10    49    0.25
10    50    0.24
10    51    0.24
10    52    0.31
10    53    0.23
10    54    0.31
10    55    0.36
10    56    0.33
10    57    0.39
10    58    0.36
10    59    0.44
10    60    0.43
10    61    0.45
10    62    0.5
10    63    0.6
10    64    0.58
10    65    0.56
10    66    0.59
10    67    0.66
10    68    0.67
10    69    0.76
10    70    0.72
10    71    0.73
10    72    0.82
10    73    0.77
10    74    0.83
10    75    0.89
10    76    0.9
10    77    0.89
10    78    0.94
10    79    0.92
10    80    0.92
10    81    0.95
10    82    0.98
10    83    0.94
10    84    0.94
10    85    0.95
10    86    0.96
10    87    0.99
10    88    1.0
10    89    1.0
10    90    1.0
10    91    1.0
10    92    1.0
10    93    1.0
10    94    1.0
10    95    1.0
10    96    1.0
10    97    1.0
10    98    1.0
10    99    1.0
10    100    1.0