Re: computer-go: 10 years is nothing.

[Don Dailey <drd@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Of course I assume you are familiar with famous Levy chess bet.  There
was a 10 year bet that Levy made claiming he would beat computers
in 10 years.  The bet was renewed another 10 years and Levy won it
twice!!!

Don

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   Dear Computer Go Mailers,

   I have not followed all details of your recent discussion, but I stumbled
   across Don's statement that looked like a conclusion.

   >The best go programs
   >in 10 or 20  years (in terms  of software only) will probably  improve
   >quite substantially, but  I suspect people will find  a way  to better
   >utilize the power of the computer too.  The  only advantage a computer
   >has over a human is vast speed and accurate memory, everthing else has
   >to be faked.  We will never see great Go  programs if we don't utilize
   >the hardware, we might as well write a list of instructions on a sheet
   >of paper.

   I could have written down that statement in 1988. In that year I made
   a bet with Robert Rehm about the year 2000. My opinion was:

   "in the year 2000 a computer program can with black and 9 stones handicap
   beat Robert Rehm (european 5 dan)"

   I am going to loose this bet with a wide margin, unless someone can
   provide me with a program before 21rst of october 2000. 

   In fact very little progress was made. Somewhere in 1992 Mark Boon wrote
   a program of about 10 kyu, when playing against weaker or a little 
   stonger players. Now a couple of programs are a little stronger, but no
   real advance is visible.

   If Robert Rehm wants to make a new bet for 2010 with the same conditions
   I am afraid I will not accept. 10 years is enormous in terms of computer
   hardware
   and software, but nothing in terms of go software development.

   peter

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