[computer-go] Pattern matching - rectification & update

["Frank de Groot" <frank@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

My previous posting about the performance of my pattern matcher was totally
wrong.
Also the graph is wrong.

MArk Boon & I had a difference of opinion on my assertion that such a system
is worth 100,000 USD and I claimed that my system predicted almost all
Joseki moves in a never-before seen pro game correctly, but I did not give
any evidence. Neither was my previous post much of a help, since it
contained the result of a few bugs.

After fixing them I was quite swept off my feet to find that 44% of all
moves in the game I referred to (Mr Popo vs. GoMonster, a game between
anonymous pros on IGS) were predicted correctly, and that almost two-third
of the moves are in the top-five.

Even better, the "learning" is not even half-way, meaning the performance
will likely go up to 50% correct prediction.

As is clear, this kind of pro-prediction has never been achieved in any
research or commercial software.

The average pro-prediction (over 50,000 games) is:

Move #1   46%
Move #2   57%
Move #3   62%
Move #4   67%
Move #5   70%

Move 25  90%

These values will improve over the coming days.

I tried to explain more clearly how the system works, and put part of the
"analized" game & (unannotated) SGF here:

http://www.moyogo.com/joseki.htm

The most interesting aspect of this is that in fact the pattern system plays
Go all by itself, at least against me. I am unable to win from it. It
invades corners, makes eyes inside them etc. Unfortunately, as a non-Go
player, I am unable to judge the playing strength and it will take a while
before I can test the system against a Go program.

I have to thank Micheal Reiss, who inspired me to drastically change the way
my pattern system works due to the information on his website about his
"Good Shape" module. It was just one word that held the key and that word
was "urgency". There are many ways to give patterns a value and for the past
two years I had focused on something that was promising and gave good
results, but after focusing on "urgency" the thing blew away all previous
results.

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