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Re: computer-go: perfect players



If they were truly perfect players,  then either every
game would be a draw, or one color would always win.

Don

   From: "Gordon Grant" <gordon@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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   Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 19:00:02 +0100
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   Pray, what would happen if two 'perfect' players played a lot of games with
   one another.  Lots of draws, or equal numbers of wins foe each?

   Gordon Grant

   ----- Original Message -----
   From: "Don Dailey" <drd@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
   To: <computer-go@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
   Cc: <computer-go@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; <computer-go@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
   Sent: Thursday, May 03, 2001 5:31 PM
   Subject: Re: computer-go: perfect players


   >
   > And one other  thing too.  The very   best Chess players  lose LOTS of
   > games still.  They couldn't be very close to perfection.
   >
   > Don
   >
   >
   >
   >
   >    Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 14:35:31 -0400 (EDT)
   >    From: Don Dailey <drd@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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   >
   >    Of course how far we are away from perfect play is opinion and subject
   >    to huge amounts of error.
   >
   >    My personal feeling is that we are much farther than we think.  I
   >    base this on these observations:
   >
   >      1. Human arrogance.   This is not directed to anyone as an individual
   > but as a class we are all a bit like this.   We think we are much
   > better at various tasks than we really are in my opinion.  We compare
   > to other humans, or to the "average" human and are too easily impressed.
   > We also romanticize the abilities of our hero's, and make them bigger
   > than life.
   >
   > The problem is that we don't have a reasonable frame of reference, we just
   > can't imagine someone playing a lot better than our own "great" players.
   > We define greatness and perfection in these terms even though we don't
   > really mean to.
   >
   > There will be players that come along later who will prove this, and
   > yet they will be limited too.   This is similar to the great  Roger
   > Bannister, running a mile as fast as humanly  possible ...  or so it was
   > thought at the time.
   >
   >      2. Comparing checkers to chess is kind of like comparing chess to go.
   > It's "easier" to reach perfection in checkers than in chess,  and
   > it's easier to reach perfection in chess than in go as far as writing
   > programs that play these games.   And yet, you will see that Chinook,
   > the worlds top checker playing program is far from perfect.  It's may
   > very  well be the case that Chinook is the best player in the world,
   > maybe even the best player ever.  There is  room for disptute here,
   > but I think anyone would agree that it is a close call.   Any yet
   > if you talk to the author of Chinook (or read his book on the subject)
   > you will see that he doesn't consider Chinook particularly close to
   > perfection,  he is aware of numerous improvements that need to be
   > made, and he would love to have a much faster computer to do a few
   > extra ply.     If he considers the "best player" in the world as
   > needing so much improvement, in a game tremendously simple compared
   > to chess or go, then I believe it says something about our own human
   > limitations.
   >
   > I did my own experiments along these lines.   I created an even
   > more simplified game.  It is checkers played on a 6x6 board.  I
   > run a huge series of autotest games at various depths of search.
   > What I wanted to do was to analyze how hard it would be to create
   > a perfect player.   Although I did not get a definitive answer,
   > I kept being surprised at how useful a single extra ply of lookahead
   > was.  I was going almost 40 ply deep in my "most fit" individual.
   > Remember, this is a very tiny game where just a few moves puts you
   > deep into the endgame.   In the end, I could not predict how much
   > depth I would need to play perfectly, because even at the highest
   > level I tested (I think it was 38 ply) it was beating the previous level
   > by several percent  (like 54%.)    It was tapering off (2 vs 1 was
   > a much bigger crush than 38 vs 37) but only  very slowly.  If I played
   > versions 2 or more levels apart, I would get huge crushing victories.
   > (I played 200 game series to muffle most of the statistical noise.)
   > The deep level were mostly drawn games, an indication that perfection
   > was being approached, but every few games would end in a victory,
   > usually for the side looking ahead a single measly move deeper.
   >
   > It's hard  to draw  firm conclusions from  this, becaues  I don't
   > have a simple  way to relate this to human  skill.
   > Still, I felt  like I was exploring a bottomless
   > pit of possible  skill levels, and I am  pretty convinced that at
   > the bottom (perfect play) would be a player very much better than
   > any human  is likely to be.   This is a trivial  game compared to
   > chess and go and even 8x8 checkers.
   >
   > In Chinooks experience, Chinook would often play a losing move
   > and not know it for many many moves and then suddenly wake up.
   > In these cases, the human master it was playing usually sensed
   > the error right away.   Even though this was happening, Chinook
   > was winning tournaments and beating the best players.   The lesson
   > here is that even though humans were better at some things, Chinook
   > was better at other things and neither was very close to perfection!
   >
   >
   >
   >    Don
   >
   >
   >
   >       Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 17:24:15 +0100
   >       From: Nick Wedd <Nick@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
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   >       Fant, Chris <chris.fant@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> writes
   >       >It has been said by at least one chess player that they could beat
   a perfect
   >       >player, given a one pawn advantage.  Has this ever been tried
   against a
   >       >computer player?  I am interested in knowing how close computer
   players are
   >       >to a perfect player, how close the best human players are to the
   perfect
   >       >player and how close the best Go players are to the perfect player.
   >
   >       This has been debated on rec.games.go.
   >
   >       The consensus seems to be that the correct handicap for the best
   human
   >       to receive when playing a perfect player is about three stones.
   >
   >       The question is complicated by the need to define "the perfect
   player".
   >       Is it one that makes the best move on the board in each position?
   Or
   >       one that can read its opponents mind, and take advantage of the
   >       misconceptions that it finds there?
   >
   >       >  It is
   >       >my conjecture that human and computer chess players are very close
   to the
   >       >perfect player relative to how close the best Go players are to the
   perfect
   >       >player.  I believe that Go programs will eventually surpass human
   players
   >       >and go on to absolutely destroy the best of the best.
   >
   >       They show no signs of doing this so far.
   >
   >       > I believe this
   >       >because of the complexity of the game.  Computers can't be stopped.
   They
   >       >will continue to approach perfect player performance.  What does
   the group
   >       >think?
   >
   >       They will continue to get better, yes.  There's a way to go.
   >
   >       Nick
   >       --
   >       Nick Wedd    nick@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
   >
   >
   >